Hello everyone. For one night only, I’m back.
Well, that’s not strictly true. As of next Tuesday, I’ll be on hand to analyse, scrutinise and satirise all that comes after this waking nightmare of an election.
But here’s the kicker – we really don’t know what comes next.
Large swathes of the media would have you believe that the Tories have it in the bag. Other corners are saying they don’t.
The most advanced opinion polling ever says the Tories will get a majority. But that majority is shrinking by the day, and opinion polls are famously about as reliable as a bus driver who’s also a dog.
Also, many seats are so tight that they can’t be predicted with a huge degree of accuracy, meaning the forecasts could be totally wrong.
So yes. It’s tight. Tighter than that single, unremovable nut that’s on every piece of IKEA furniture you want to dismantle.
This is why, in this election more than any other, your vote counts.
TAKE ME, O DEATH
I know. This campaign has been absolutely devoid of optimism. The two potential candidates for Prime Minister are appallingly unfit for office.
The first is a misogynistic, albino Furby with daddy issues. Boris Johnson is blowing the dog-whistle of populism so hard he’s deafened the local Battersea dogs home.
The other is a postman who’s got a bit uppity since his union dissolved in 1973. Those closest to Jeremy Corbyn believe that a cabal of Jewish overlords control all of the world’s money. He hasn’t exactly rushed to correct them.
And that’s our choice. It shouldn’t have to be, but it is. The other parties have been swept aside by the media – it’s so much more profitable to have a two-horse race, you see.
Even Farage has largely been shut up. I suppose that’s one positive from this whole sordid mess.
So, faced with all of the above, what are we to do? The temptation is to just throw your hands in the air, swear loudly, and walk off a cliff.
But if that is your plan, then for god’s sake, VOTE FIRST.
What’s the point?
Stopping the Tories. That’s the point.
Look, I’ve tried to be balanced on this blog but I am a centrist to my core. If the Conservative and Unionist party was being led by David Gauke or Rory Stewart, there’s a chance I’d vote for them, as I would for Labour under a Starmer or a Phillips.
But this Tory government, under this shyster? Not a chance. This isn’t a conservative party, it’s a radicalised mad-house.
Make no mistake – if Johnson wins, it will lead to chaos.
Brexit will not be resolved on January 31st. Because he has refused to extend the transition period, we will have around 10 months to carry out the single biggest trade negotiation in our history.
For clarity, small trade negotiations usually take years.
So what does this mean? It means that, at the end of 2020, we will be staring straight down the barrel at a no-deal Brexit again. And with a Tory majority, we would need MPs to rebel against Johnson in their droves to stop him, which is unlikely.
All of those who might have done have already been turfed out.
- The Tory manifesto hasn’t been properly costed, so all of Johnson’s campaign promises are likely to be as truthful as this one
- We face the biggest threat to the already-crippled NHS yet
- Any future trade deal with the US runs the risk of sections of it being privatised or opened up to “Big Pharma,” which would be catastrophic
- Increasing child poverty, according to the Resolution Foundation
- And kicking the climate change can into next week.
Sounds great, doesn’t it? Out of Europe, out of ideas, out of our sodding minds.
So How Do We Stop Him?
By voting. For anyone but him.
Tactical voting is something I’m fundamentally uneasy about. I believe democracy to be about voting for the representative that best reflects your opinions and beliefs. Even if your candidate loses, you’ve exercised your right to have your opinion heard.
Asking someone to vote for someone they don’t believe in just so they can stop someone who they believe in less is a sorry state of affairs. But here we are, folks – welcome to democracy 2.0.
So how does it work?
Look at the results of the 2017 election in your constituency. You can do this here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results
Look at who won, and by how much. If it’s the Tories, look at who’s in second place.
In Wakefield, Mary Creagh is a Labour MP who can beat the Tories. If Lib Dem voters vote L-D, she might lose. If they lend their vote to Labour, Creagh will win.
By contrast, in Richmond Park, Lib Dem candidate Sarah Olney can beat Zac Goldsmith if Labour voters support her.
Tactical voting is pretty miserable, but that’s what needs to happen to stop Johnson. Maybe one day we will have a voting system that actually represents people, but here we are for now.
Research your vote, pick the candidate to stop the Tories, and make it count.
But I Don’t Want Corbyn as PM
Me bloody neither. I’d rather eat gravel.
But there’s absolutely no way he can win a majority. His support has shrivelled away faster than a man-hose in a plunge pool.
A vote for Labour is a vote for a hung Parliament. A hung Parliament means alliances with other parties. Other parties will never allow Corbyn’s far-left policies to gain any traction. No far-left policies likely means no Corbyn.
And a hung Parliament will almost certainly result in a second referendum. Will this stop Brexit?
I’d take that bet.
I know it seems hopeless. I know it seems like this has lasted forever. I know that all anyone wants is for it to end.
But if we stop Bonkey Jong from getting a majority, the end is in sight. A referendum, a win, and an end to Brexit (although it must be said, not an end to the Brexit debate – the fallout from either outcome is going to be atrocious).
If Johnson gets in, make no mistake – Brexit will rumble on until the end of 2020, and we’ll be right back where we were, but worse.
And I’m not sure my poor little brain can deal with that.
See you next week. God speed, everyone.