I had every plan of writing a blog this evening (Monday night, to give you a glimpse the glamour of behind the scenes) that was going to outline this week.
Tuesday would be mental. Parliament might be so furious with BoJo that they might change the law. In a day, when it usually takes weeks.
Wednesday might have been needed to finalise a few things, followed on by a few days of time-wasting by Brexiteers in the House of Lords. Yadda yadda yadda.
The HoL, by the way, is one of our few institutions that is entirely unelected, but still vital to the passing of laws. Is it ironic that Brexiteers were hoping that an unelected body might prevent the “taking back control” (slogan of the Leave campaign back in 2016) of Parliament, our elected body?
Probably not, because irony is now dead, forever.
Things have escalated to such a degree that all of the planning for this week is now irrelevant and dated already.
Let’s break this down simply and easily – this week is going to be historical.
For once, this hyperbolic blog is actually being deadly serious.
What In The Everloving Christ Has Happened Now?
Parliament reconvenes today. The plan is for rebel MPs to oppose Boris’ prorogation of Parliament (more on that here) by passing a Bill through Parliament to made it illegal for BoJo to leave the EU without a deal on October 31st.
This timetabling was forced by Boris proroguing Parliament, thereby reducing the amount of time Parliament had to debate and discuss the issue. Instead, he would promote his new political agenda for the year and try to force through his own version of Brexit without scrutiny.
In order for this to work, Boris would need his opponents to be divided, confused, and weak.
Instead, he’s pissed off everyone. So much so, in fact, that all of those opponents, who really do not like each other at all, are now in solidarity with one another against him. So much so that, actually, what was being touted as impossible is now the most likely outcome – the rebels are likely to win today.
The rebels, by the way, would not succeed without a number of Boris’ own party-members rebelling against the Conservative Party.
Boris realised this yesterday and threatened them with deselection (being fired from the party). But this hasn’t stopped them: the Tory rebels are so adamant that they are right that they are going to give up their political careers to oppose him.
His plan had failed before it had already begun.
So, at 5pm yesterday, he called his cabinet into Downing Street for a “drinks party.” While I, of all people, appreciate turning a work do into a piss-up, it does feel ever so slightly disingenuous to decide the fate of the country over champagne, fancy canapés and swooning over an admittedly adorable new dog.
At 6pm, having debated and discussed what to do with his inner sanctum, Boris took to the lectern outside No. 10. He announced that if he is defeated in Parliament by the rebels today, he will be forced into calling a General Election.
Oh Lordy Lou. To quote Brenda from Bristol, “Not another one?”
No. Not Necessarily.
Johnson, in his horrendously underwhelming speech in front of No. 10, loudly heckled and booed by campaigners throughout, said that “He didn’t want a general election, and nor do we [the people].”
But if his own Tory MP’s “cut the legs off” his negotiating position, he would have no choice.
As such, political commentators are speculating that the week will be as follows:
- An emergency debate bill (SO24) is granted today, and John Bercow grants Parliament the chance to change the law (which is unprecedented);
- Johnson will lose this, as a number of his own MPs will rebel against him.
- Johnson cannot fulfil his promise of leaving the EU on October 31st, as he will be forced to ask for an extension.
- He said yesterday that this was something that he would not do.
- So, on Wednesday, Johnson will call an election (to be held before the Brexit deadline, most likely in early October).
Which… means we’re due a General Election, right? Yippee-Ki-Yay, we’re doing it all again. Kill me now.
Except We’re Really Not.
Every major news outlet is gushing about the fact that a General Election might be about to happen, especially as Jeremy “Couldn’t Lead a Party To a Disco” Corbyn has been calling for one for the last two years.
But. And this is a biiiiig old but. Nicki Minaj levels of a big ol’ butt.
Just because Boris calls for a General Election doesn’t mean that it’s going to happen. It requires the agreement of 2/3rds of Parliament, which is not even remotely assured.
Corbyn might see this as the trap it is and wait for a better time. Conservatives aren’t going to trample each other to race to an election, because they’re all going to get absolutely savaged in constituencies where the purist Brexit Party will probably beat them.
The Rebel Alliance of Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and SNPs would all benefit from seeing the Conservative Party fall to pieces before going to the polls, which might well happen.
Boris might call for an election, but not get the numbers.
He might have to see this through to the end.
DEAR GOD WHY WON’T THIS SHIT STOP
Because deciding something important based on the fact that no-one cares anymore is a terrible way to run a country.
It doesn’t make up for the fact that yes, everything is godawful, and no, things will not get better for a long time yet.
But this week is super important. Please keep an eye on proceedings, make up your own minds, and be politically aware. It doesn’t have to be here, but please try to at least know what it is you might be voting for if we end up having to vote.
Because I would bet on Seabiscuit’s sweet, sweet, desperately-expensive jizz that an election is coming, and it will define a generation.
Read up. Fight inaccuracies. Form your own opinions, and do not take anything that you read in the newspapers as genuine fact.
We now live in a society where we have to fact-check the government, not the other way round.