After the cataclysmic events that lead up to this point, the battered and war-wearied forces of The Offenders gather for one last attack, against all the odds, to win the Brexit Infinity War.
Nearly all hope has gone from the galaxy/country. Our heroes have lost swathes of allies/voters to a purple tyrant… Well, he was purple when he was UKIP, at least. Faranos caused the “Snap” referendum, which resulted in half of the people in the country ceasing to exist (in terms of having any say in the outcome of Brexit).
But Captain Amayrica has rallied her troops for one last attack. Hunt-eye, Captain Morvel, Gorve the demigod, Iron-Hamm – all of her closest lieutenants stand by her, shoulder to shoulder, ready to do battle, one last time.
Please Stop Now, Some Of Those Were Actually Painful
I know, I’m sorry. I couldn’t help myself.
Yesterday, Theresa May told Jeremy Corbyn face to face that, on the week commencing June the 3rd, she would bring the Withdrawal Bill, in its entirety, to a vote in the Commons.
This is not a meaningful vote. This isn’t an indicator of support for government policy. This is an attempt to actually pass the Bill into law. The Bill that has already failed to pass through Parliament three times, that is.
It’s nothing short of a suicide mission.
What?! Why On Earth Would She Do That? Surely It’ll Go Down In Flames? …Again.
Because she has literally no other options.
In another long and arduous session with her Cabinet, May eventually realised that this was her only strategy left. In deciding this, she told Corbyn of her plans to put pressure on Labour to try and finally find some kind of concession in the cross-party talks.
Labour have already said that without a successful negotiation between the two parties, they will not support May’s Withdrawal Bill. The tone of the comments about the cross-party talks have become increasingly defeatist recently, with this being the seventh week of discussions. So, if (or, more likely, when) they fail, May will not have the support of the Labour vote for her Withdrawal Agreement.
Because it has failed to resolve the backstop, the DUP have also already come out to say they will not support it. Obviously, the Lib-Dem, SNP, Green, Plaid Cymru and Change UK MPs will not support it. Some of those Tories who voted in favour of the last meaningful vote as a desperate move to save Brexit have hardened their stances again, so they will not support it.
The numbers are simply not there, barring a major volte-face after an absolute drubbing at the European election ballot box. But even then, given that the government is a minority government, they would still rely on a considerable number of Labour defectors to have a majority – while some would rebel and vote in favour of it (those from a heavily Brexit-favouring constituency, for instance), they would not nearly be enough.
So It Really Is A Suicide Mission. What Happens If–Sorry, When It Fails?
May’s threat is that if it fails, the only two scenarios are no deal or revoke Article 50. A final, brutal head-to-head which will probably favour revocation over crashing-out, if only by a small margin.
However, this assumes that she will still be in government. Should the Bill pass, and I literally just snorted out some coffee typing that, she will leave – she promised to do so back in March, remember? If it doesn’t, it is most likely the end of her, too.
When the Bill fails, it will bring the end of the Parliamentary session, i.e. the current sitting of MPs being available for lawmaking. Because of her lack of majority or authority in basically anything, she will be unable to start a new one – this will likely pave the way for a leadership contest.
What happens after that is anyone’s guess. She might even stay in power, and it might end up being a straight fight between no-deal and revoke. But, whatever the outcome, the battle-lines have been drawn.
It is about to get GoT Series 8 episode 5 up in here.
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