Well, we’ve already said this once before, yet here we are again. It’s crunch time, the end of line, or the curtain call for Brexit…
Or it might just be the beginning of an interminable intermission that goes on until Christmas.
We just don’t know, folks. ISN’T IT EXCITING!?
Regardless of how tedious Brexit has become, this is an incredibly important week. After all this time, all of this stress and all of this anxiety, we will finally have some kind of longish-term answer to what happens with Brexit by Friday:
We will either have a long extension until the end of the year, with the option to leave before then if we manage to sort our Brexit-befuddled brains out, or we will crash out Europe with no-deal.
The fall-out from either option will be utter carnage.
I’ll get the popcorn.
So What Is Actually Happening This Week?
Monday & Tuesday
Today and tomorrow will see the government and the House of Commons try to figure out what on earth will happen this week.
- There could be some consensus formed from the cross-party talks between the Conservatives and Labour and a new deal created that could unite Parliament. This is highly unlikely as talks broke down last week.
- A hypothetical deal could be put to the House for a vote, or if no deal is created then a vote might be held on alternative strategies like the Indicative Votes. This time they would be binding, however.
- Additionally, the Cooper Bill could pass through the House of Lords and get Royal Assent, which means that Parliament would force May to choose to ask the EU for an extension date they have chosen, rather than stick to May’s choice for 30th of June (which will be rejected by the EU anyway).
May will travel to an emergency summit of the European Council to ask for another extension. Yes, it is getting as embarrassing as it sounds.
Even if a cross-party deal gained a majority in the House of Commons earlier in the week, meaning we have a confirmed Brexit plan, May would still have to ask the EU for a short extension in order to pass the legislation.
If, as expected, there is no deal organised, the EU will almost certainly reject a short extension and instead offer May a “Flextension.” While a diplomatically-sound concept, it is burdened by the having a nickname that is the stupidest and most deeply-irritating port-manteau since “Brexit.” Created by Donald Tusk, the President of the European Commission, the extension would be until the end of 2019, but would also allow us to leave at any other time before then if British thumbs are pulled from their rectums and we manage to finally sort out a way to achieve Brexit.
It is worth noting, also, that the EU has previously stated that it would not grant a long extension without a clear indication from the UK that it was going to use the time for something specific like a General Election or Second Referendum – May would need to use whatever was the outcome of Monday or Tuesday’s votes to secure a long extension, assuming a plan was actually passed.
Either way, Wednesday will be horrible for May.
If the Cooper Bill passes, the House of Commons will have to vote to ratify whatever May comes back with. It would be pretty bizarre for Parliament to reject a long extension, given that it’s what most of the MPs in the House are asking for, but this is Brexit.
Down is up, left is right and the ERG are for some reason sabotaging their own ambitions to leave the EU.
If the EU has refused to grant a long extension or Parliament fails to ratify it, we could crash out of the EU with no-deal.
Anything Else We Need To Know?
If it looks as though no-deal might be the eventual outcome, Parliament may decide to Revoke Article 50 rather than crash out. Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, told the BBC that Labour would think long and hard about revoking rather than leaving, as workers livelihoods could be irrevocably damaged by the fallout of a no-deal Brexit. As the government currently does not have a majority, only a few rebellions would be needed for this outcome to occur…
Another referendum is likely to be voted on again in some form on Monday or Tuesday. If a consensus is found, Corbyn is under huge amounts of pressure from the rest of his party to ensure that a referendum if promised on the final deal – the deal vs Remain. However, if no consensus is found, it will likely be an option on the binding votes that the government will bring to Parliament – probably as an amendment, as the government has refused to countenance a second referendum and is unlikely to now.
The Labour Party has been hit by both barrels by The Times today, which has exposed just how serious and deep-rooted the anti-Semitic issues within the party are. The Jewish Labour Movement has passed a motion of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, which is a huge blow for their perception and political clout.
Good grief. Whatever Happened to “OHHH JEREMY CORRRRBYN?”
I know. While Brexit may dominate the headlines this week, this story will not go away anytime soon.
For now, though, we enter the Brexit Endgame, Pt. II.
Good luck everyone.
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